Investment Perspectives | Confidence

Despite making new highs recently, U.S. equities were volatile over the summer and early fall, keeping investors guessing about the future direction of prices. Among the concerns breeding skepticism about the economy and the markets are on-again/off-again trade negotiations, disruption of supply chains, declines in manufacturing activity, and sluggish capital spending.

Five Sources of Alpha in an Aging Market Cycle

For the past decade, investors have enjoyed a long climb up the “wall of worry.” Perhaps enjoyed is the wrong word: Investors have weathered European debt crises, a peek over a “fiscal cliff” in the U.S., an oil-market collapse, and an undeniable escalation in geopolitical and trade tensions around the world. But through it all, U.S. stocks and bonds have steadily climbed, and any interim market corrections have been short-lived.

Investment Perspectives | Confidence

Despite making new highs recently, U.S. equities were volatile over the summer and early fall, keeping investors guessing about the future direction of prices. Among the concerns breeding skepticism about the economy and the markets are on-again/off-again trade negotiations, disruption of supply chains, declines in manufacturing activity, and sluggish capital spending.

Investment Perspectives | Cool Change

"Time for a cool change; I know that it's time for a cool change..."
—Little River Band, 1979

Changes occur for a variety of reasons. Sometimes a major event makes it clear that an immediate course correction is needed. Other times, a series of occurrences allows a decision to evolve gradually. And often, as in the present instance, it just “feels right.”

European Small Caps: A Too-Often-Ignored Opportunity

I once asked a bond manager if he had ever held a bond that went into default. Without missing a beat, he replied, “That’s entirely the wrong question. What you should ask me is whether I’ve ever sold a bond at less than 50 cents on the dollar.”

He was absolutely right. I had asked about technical default, and he reminded me that the risk event I sought to identify (i.e., price collapse) takes place when the market perceives the “chance” of default. The lesson was clear: You need to know your subject, but more importantly, you need to ask the right questions.

Outlook for 2019 | The Measure of All Things

Last year, our annual outlook publication, Confronting the Unknown, focused on risk: how we define it, how we measure it, and what we saw as the major risks facing investors in 2018. The discussion, unfortunately, was timely given the market volatility we experienced last year. Two of the five risks we highlighted—the risks of rising interest rates and heightened global trade tensions—were top of mind for investors throughout the year.

Outlook for 2019 | The Measure of All Things

Last year, our annual outlook publication, Confronting the Unknown, focused on risk: how we define it, how we measure it, and what we saw as the major risks facing investors in 2018. The discussion, unfortunately, was timely given the market volatility we experienced last year. Two of the five risks we highlighted—the risks of rising interest rates and heightened global trade tensions—were top of mind for investors throughout the year.

Outlook for 2019 | The Measure of All Things

Last year, our annual outlook publication, Confronting the Unknown, focused on risk: how we define it, how we measure it, and what we saw as the major risks facing investors in 2018. The discussion, unfortunately, was timely given the market volatility we experienced last year. Two of the five risks we highlighted—the risks of rising interest rates and heightened global trade tensions—were top of mind for investors throughout the year.

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